Fourth-Round Matchup - St. Thomas Tommies

When looking at the brackets, when they were released not quite a month ago, it was hard not to imagine these two teams meeting in the semi-finals. St. Thomas will be the first undefeated team Whitewater will face this post season. With a 13-0 record the Tommies won the Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference and were awarded an automatic Pool A playoff bid. For comparison purposes, it's nice to see that Whitewater and St. Thomas share a common opponent this year. However, both teams manage to win that game convincingly. St. Thomas beat River Falls 45-22, while Whitewater beat them 42-10. Both games were at played at River Falls. So what does that boil down to? Absolutely nothing. In fact, very little was revealed when looking at each team's River Falls game on who might have an edge. At first glance these two teams are almost mirror images of each other. Both are very strong upfront on both sides of the ball, both have athletic/mobile quarterbacks and both teams are extremely balanced in all aspects of the game.



St. Thomas Wide Receiver Fritz Waldvogel



The 2011 Gagliardi Trophy finalist, Fritz Waldvogel, is the Tommies' standout player on offense. The 5'9" senior wide receiver raked in just about every possible award he could in his four years. Besides being a Gagliardi finalist, he's also been awarded All-MIAC, MIAC MVP, All-Region and All-American (soon to be). He's been one of the better wide receivers in Division III this season - this side of Michael Zweifel. Waldvogel has 72 receptions on the year, totaling 1193 yards along with 17 total touchdowns. What he lacks in height, he more than makes up for in skill and speed. Waldvogel is extremely explosive and dangerous when he gets his hands on the ball, as demonstrated when he also takes the field as the team's kick and punt returner. Equally as talented, but at a less glamorous position is Tommies' offensive lineman Dan Chapman. Chapman was awarded with the Mike Stam Award, which is given to the MIAC's top lineman. Along side Chapman, two other lineman were named to the all conference team (Curtis James - 1st Team, and Chad Vandergriff - 2nd Team). UST's massive offensive line did take a blow last week when starter Jason Flesher was carted off the field in the win over St. John Fisher. It's unclear if he'll be able to go this week, but we wish him the best. I can spend all day talking about their offense, but I wanted to quickly mention two other very talent athletes at the skills position. Quarterback Dakota Tracy (1st Team All-MIAC) is a very capable signal caller and is proficient both in and out of the pocket. Look for him to keep the Whitewater linebackers busy this weekend. The 5'10" senior has thrown for 2213 yards, 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions so far this year. He is also the team's second leading rusher with 437 yards on the season. There's also running back Colin Tobin, who leads the conference in rushing. The senior - also 1st Team All-MIAC - averages better than 121 yards per game and has 22 rushing touchdowns on the season. The three-headed monster of Tracy, Tobin and Waldvogel have been doing some serious damage to defenses all year long. It's going to take a very strong game from the Warhawk's defense to slow down this team that's been averaging over 40 points per game.



Tommie Linebacker Tony Danna

 It might be hard to believe, but as good as the offense has been this year, St. Thomas' defense has been arguably better. The Tommies rank third in the country, giving up a measly 9.38 points per game. UST's defense consists of three All-Region players (LB Tony Danna -1st team, DT Danny Kane -2nd team and CB Chinni Oji - 3rd team), along with four others that made the all-conference team. Needless to say they had a good season considering over 63 percent of its starting defense received all-conference accolades (either first or second team). Danna is the anchor of the Tommie defense with 17 tackles for loss, four sacks and five pass breakups this year. The senior leads the team with 58 tackles (45 solo), and I have a funny suspicion he would have a lot more if he played all four quarters each game. UST's front seven have been setting up shop in the opponents' backfield quite often this year. The Tommies rank sixth in the country averaging over 3.5 sacks per game. This is a defense that accumulated three shutouts this season. During a particular seven-game stretch (10/1 - 11/19) the Tommies allowed just 29 total points. That's barely over four points per game during that time frame. Whitewater's offense has been known to wear defenses down throughout the duration of a game. After an abundance of pounding away at an opponent, eventually the defense will break. That's where UWW breaks off big plays to put the game away. With that being said they will have their work cut out for them this weekend if they want to wear down this Tommie defense.

2011 Statistics (National Rank)

St. Thomas Rushing Offense: 235.62 ypg (22)
Whitewater Rushing Defense: 86.0 ypg (11)

St. Thomas Passing Offense: 206.31 ypg (97)
Whitewater Passing Defense: 170.69 ypg (64)

St. Thomas Total Offense: 441.92 ypg (28)
Whitewater Total Defense: 256.69 ypg (14)

St. Thomas Rushing Defense: 47.85 ypg (1)
Whitewater Rushing Offense: 233.31 ypg (24)

St. Thomas Passing Defense: 158.23 ypg (37)
Whitewater Passing Offense: 208.69 ypg (91)

St. Thomas Total Defense: 206.08 ypg (3)
Whitewater Total Offense: 442.0 ypg (26)

Whitewater's Fourth-Round Games (Since 2005)
2005 - UWW over Wesley, 58-6
2006 - UWW over Wesley, 44-7
2007 - UWW over Mary Harden-Baylor 16-7
2008 - UWW over Mary Harden-Baylor, 39-13
2009 - UWW over Linfield, 27-17
2010 - UWW over Wesley, 27-7

There's one more interesting stat I wanted to post before I wrapped this up. I always thought there would be a game where Whitewater's ample amount of penalties taken might actually cost them a victory. I thought this weekend might be that day considering all the fire power St. Thomas has to take advantage of a penalty-happy team. What I found astonished me when looking at each of the four remaining teams in the playoffs and the amount of penalties committed. It's rare to say that Whitewater has an advantage over other teams when talking about penalties committed. I figured this would be one glaring weakness for the Warhawks, but as the numbers suggest it's practically a rare advantage:

Fewest Penalties Per Game (out of 239 D3 programs)
UWW: 6.38 (143rd in D3), 58.62 yards per game
Mount Union: 7.08 (180th), 56.15 yards per game
UST: 7.54 (198th), 71.23 yards per game
Wesley: 9.08 (231st), 85.08 yards per game

I believe this game will have a similar outcome to Whitewater's 2007 semi-final game against Mary Harden-Baylor. This will be a low-scoring defensive battle, where one big play on offense could determine who goes to Salem. In a low scoring game, field position and special teams could very well determine the outcome. If that's the case, that'll play right into the hands of St. Thomas considering they have an all-region punter (Garrett Maloney), an all-region kicker (Tim Albright) and all-region kick returner (Waldvogel). Unlike previous years, I don't think there is a clear-cut favorite on who's going to make it to the Stagg Bowl this year. That goes both semi-final games, even with Whitewater and Mount Union in the field of four. The next two games on Saturday should be a thing of beauty for DIII fans everywhere. Except if you're a fan of the two losing teams.....