Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Third-Round Matchup - Salisbury University

With the NCAA's realignment of this year's playoff bracket, the Warhawks will be facing a rare east region program in the quarterfinals. Salisbury University Sea Gulls bring an 11-1 record into Whitewater, as they finished the regular season ranked 10th in the country (D3football.com). Which is the fourth highest ranking among one-loss teams. Their lone loss this year came back in week nine, when they fell on the road to Wesley, 14-23. The Sea Gulls entered the playoffs by receiving an automatic Pool A bid after running the table and winning the Empire 8 conference with a 7-0 record. This was Salisbury's inaugural season as an E8 conference member. In 2010, they were a part of the Atlantic Central Football Conference before the ACFC inevitably shut down at the end of last year (lack of participants). When they closed up shop the ACFC only had four members, which didn't meet the NCAA minimum to be awarded an automatic bid. If the ACFC still remained, and Salisbury was still a member, there would be no guarantee that the Sea Gulls would have even made the field of 32 this season. Wesley would have still received the one Pool B bid, while the Sea Gulls could do nothing but sit and pray for a Pool C at-large bid. Needless to say, the move to the E8 was in Salisbury's best interest.


Salisbury Junior QB Dan Griffin

For the third time in three playoff games this year, Whitewater will be facing a player who was a conference offensive player of the year. This time around it will be the E8's Offensive Player of the Year, quarterback Dan Griffin. The junior is the cornerstone of the team's very dangerous triple-option offense. Griffin accounted for 27 touchdowns (13 passing, 14 rushing) and became the school's first 1,000-yard passer since 1998. During the regular season Griffin had a 239.77 pass efficiency rating without throwing a single interception. He also rushed for 623 yards on the year. Salisbury doesn't pass very often, in fact Griffin has only attempted 82 passes on the year (including the playoffs). That's under seven attempts per game. However, throwing the ball down field isn't what the Sea Gulls are all about. Salisbury utilizes the triple option better than just about anyone in the country, averaging over 362 yards per game. Its leading rusher is First Team All-Conference running back Randal Smedley who averages 91 ypg. Including Griffin, the Sea Gulls have three players with over 800 rushing yards on the season - all averaging over five yards per carry. After a few offensive option-running possessions, it's very easy for defenses to creep up and begin to over commit to stop the run. Once that happens, a simple play-action pass will catch defenses out of position as they become very vulnerable for a pass over the top. Including the playoffs, Griffin has only 46 completions, as 15 of those were for TDs - which is a pretty remarkable ratio. The Sea Gulls' offensive line consists of three all-conference lineman, including 6'8" 320lb left guard Alex Smith who fans will probably be able to spot from the perking lot. This is an offense that the Warhawks haven't seen in quite some time. It'll be interesting to see how they handle the abundance of miss-directions, fake hand offs, and play actions this weekend.

Sea Gulls Sophomore DB Andre Carter

With an offensive style that Salisbury brings to each game, it's easy to incorrectly over look the Sea Gulls' defense. Its 3-4 defensive scheme is centered around First Team All-Conference linebacker Jamey McClendon. The senior leads the E8 with 6.5 sacks this season, and is second on the team with 87 total tackles. The secondary is led by another First Team All-E8 player in Chris Everett. The junior defensive back leads the team with 95 total tackles and eight pass breakups. Another player that Warhawk quarterback Matt Blanchard will have to account for at all times is defensive back Andre Carter. The First Team All-Conference sophomore leads the Empire 8 with seven interceptions this year. This is a very strong defense, as six of the 11 defensive starters made either the first or second all-conference team. The Sea Gulls have been extremely stout against the run, giving up just over three yards per carry. I'm sure Salisbury's front seven will be watching plenty of film on Levell Coppage this week. If the Sea Gulls can keep Coppage in check and prevent the offense from picking up first downs, they will give themselves a great opportunity to advance to the semifinals.  

One interesting stat that stands out to me is Salisbury's special teams, specifically its field goal unit. They are 3 for 7 on the year in field goals, with a long of only 30 yards and are 0-3 beyond 30 yards. I suppose if you average more than 40 points per game, and over seven yards per play, who needs a field goal unit....right? If the Sea Gulls find themselves in a 4th down situation, with the ball between Whitewater's 20-35 yard line, I would look for Salisbury to go for it just about every time. Especially with this game being played in late November in the state of Wisconsin - not exactly field-goal friendly weather. An early look at the forecast indicates a high in the mid 30s with a 30 percent chance of a rain/snow mixture in Whitewater, WI. It wouldn't be playoff time in Whitewater without some extreme weather conditions. I am right?!

2011 Statistics (National Rank)
Salisbury Rushing Offense: 364.8 ypg (2)
Whitewater Rushing Defense: 72.8 ypg (4)

Salisbury Passing Offense: 101.2 ypg (226)
Whitewater Passing Defense: 180.8 ypg (86)

Salisbury Total Offense: 466.0 ypg (12)
Whitewater Total Defense: 253.7 ypg (14)

Salisbury Rushing Defense: 135.4 ypg (75)
Whitewater Rushing Offense: 230.0 ypg (25)

Salisbury Passing Defense: 169.3 ypg (57)
Whitewater Passing Offense: 214.9 ypg (85)

Salisbury Total Defense: 304.7 ypg (45)
Whitewater Total Offense: 444.9 ypg (24)

Whitewater's Third-Round Games (Since 2005)
2005 - UWW over Linfield, 44-41
2006 - UWW over St. John's, 17-14
2007 - UWW over Wabash, 47-7
2008 - UWW over Wartburg, 34-17
2009 - UWW over Wittenberg, 31-13
2010 - UWW over North Central, 20-10

What interests me the most is Salisbury's number two nationally-ranked rushing offense going up against Whitewater's number four ranked rushing defense - needless to say something must give this Saturday. For the hell of it I took a closer look at Salisbury's October loss against Wesley. Similar to Whitewater, Wesley has the sixth ranked rushing defense, and gave up 14 points and only 226 rushing yards to the Sea Gulls that Saturday afternoon. That's 140 fewer yards than Salisbury's season average. On paper, it's easy to say Whitewater is more than capable of replicating that defensive effort. Then again, many didn't give Wabash a chance against North Central last week (including myself), and the Little Giants proved many wrong. That's why we play the game, you never know what's going to happen. If I had to guess, I think this quarter-final game will have a similar outcome to the Wartburg game in 2008...in Whitewater's favor.

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