Talent Gap

I'm not certain how he does it, but Mount Union's Larry Kehres seems to recruit/transfer-in players that are above and (especially) beyond the quality of players seen on other D3 programs. And he's been doing it for just about 20 years now. I realize this is anything but new, but after watching their game against Mary Hardin Baylor (a team, thought by many, capable of realistically beat UMU), I was just in awe on how they dominated that game. I'm aware the score indicated it was a close, but that's only because Mount spotted them FIVE turnovers, and they still managed to win by two touchdowns!!! How many times does a team lose the turnover margin by that much, and still come out as double digit winners?? Answer: You can probably count the occurrences on one hand! Yes, MHB did cough it up late in the game making Mount's turnover margin -4 on the day, but the damage was already done and the game was over by then

MHB was a very good team this season with an outstanding offense and a solid defense. In fact, this was probably one of the best MHB teams they've ever fielded. However, Mount's quarterback (Burke) - only a sophomore - and a host of wide receivers (especially Jasper Collins) just tore apart MHB's secondary. The way Mount Union's receivers (with their speed and quickness) are able to get off the line and create separation isn't typically seen at this level. Collins (like Cecil Shorts before him, and Pierre Garcon before him) is about damn near uncoverable at this level of college football. Besides a special teams miscue that lead to a quick MHB touchdown, and a throwing mistake (pick six) by Burke, Mount's offense and defense just manhandled D3's second best team. Mount out gained MHB 457 total yards to just 275. And the Crusaders are a team that averages over 523 yards/game!!!! By scoring 34 points in the fourth quarter alone, Mount almost equalled MHB's point total for the entire game (35). Speaking of their defense, I think I counted three or four Purple Raiders in MHB's backfield following just about each snap in the fourth quarter. Their front six or seven were unblockable and just destroyed MHB's offensive line late in the game. Considering they did it against a Crusaders line that consisted of a 2013 Preseason First Team All-American, and a First Team All-Region player. Luckily for MHB, they have a very athletic QB in LiDarral Bailey. The senior did his best avoiding the onslaughting waves of purple attackers - which at times wasn't enough.

You will never hear me say that it is Mount Union's time to move up to D2. Or that Kehres has an unfair advantage...that's just ridiculous and in no-way true. He's just taking full advantage of not having a roster limit (just like 90% of all D3 football programs have), while allowing the best to emerge from the pack as nobody gets cut. It's just amazing to me the level of talent that Kehres is able to bring in year in and year out from all over the country. Just by watching one game, you can see that the Purple Raiders' athleticism far out weighs the athleticism of most other programs. Mount Union's recruiting tentacles extend far beyond Ohio and its neighboring states. They actually seem to have pipelines to various corners of the country. A little over half of their roster contains players from Ohio. That's really not that much considering most D3 programs get a vast majority its roster from in-state. Whereas almost a quarter of Kehres's roster contains players from outside Ohio and their neighboring states. Numerous athletes are plucked from: Florida, New York, Texas, Maryland, Virgina, California and even the Bahamas. Nine roster players alone are from Florida - which really needs a D3 football program already :). Between coaching and recruiting Kehres knows exactly what he's doing...and has been doing it well. Extremely well.

Because D3 football is so large (239 some-odd teams I believe), the talent gab between teams are equally as large. Looking at the All-American list each year I think the committee is being modest with the athletes in some of these big programs. In fact, I would take a handful of Mount Union players - that didn't make the list - over many non-Purple Raiders that did make the All-American team. Yes, some of those athletes from various programs put up All-American type numbers in their respected conferences, and do deserve the recognition. But in my opinion, (trying to avoid sounding like Roger Waters) some might be just another "brick in the wall" if they played for a big program (i.e. Mount Union, Whitewater, MHB, Linfield or St. Thomas). I guess what I'm trying to say is (in trying my hardest not to sound condescending), All-Americans at less prestigious D3 teams may not be at the same talent level as some athletes on these aforementioned schools....if that makes sense.

After that MHB game I was just awestruck by the speed and athleticism of Mount Union. And to do it for almost 20 years straight now is just mindblowing. It almost didn't seem like D3 football to me, but something you watch on a major network (ABC/ESPN/NBC) on Saturdays. No rebuilding required in Alliance, but rather just reload in spring time. After seven seasons (2005-2011) Whitewater seemed to be on their way to "Mount Union type greatness" but fell flat and failed to make the playoffs in 2012. Whitewater still has a bunch of question marks for next season. So it's tough to tell if the Warhawks will need some years to rebuild, or if 2012 was just a hiccup. UWW has probably been the closets team in D3 history to replicate UMU's success. However they are still years of successful seasons away from being where the Purple Raiders are today.

It wasn't my intention to write this to patronize lesser D3 schools where athletics may not be a top priority. Nor was it written to offer up misinterpreted back-handed complements to Mount Union. But rather, it's just a grouping of random thoughts following the Mount Union/MHB game, and just how much better some programs are compared to hundred(s) of others in D3.

Fourth-Round Matchup: St. Thomas Tommies

It's rare to see a pair of teams meet in the playoffs (that aren't in same conference) that have three common opponents in a season: Eau Claire, River Falls and Bethel. St. Thomas beat Bethel 37-0, River Falls 43-9 and Eau Claire 27-24. While Oshkosh beat Bethel 37-14, River Falls 19-7 and Eau Claire 50-13. What does this mean? Probably absolutely nothing. In fact, the average margin of victory against these three teams gives the Tommies a slight edge (only .6 points/game to be exact). Yes, the Eau Claire game against UST was surprisingly close, but that was very early in the season (and don't get me started on that game again). It's tough to tell how much chemistry St. Thomas had in week one (if any), especially given what they lost on offense from that 2011 team. It's fun to look at common opponents, particularly when these two teams share so many, but I doubt it'll get you closer to figuring out who will win this Saturday.

St. Thomas (ranked 4th in the country) came out as winners of the North region, eliminating St. Norberts (48-27), Elmhurst (24-17) and Hobart (47-7). The Tommies finished the regular season 10-0, and received the Pool A bid entering the playoffs as the top seed in the North. Thanks to their university committing to building a strong athletic program, UST quickly became a D3 football powerhouse in a matter of a few years. The Tommies were just a 2-8 team five years ago. Since the hiring of head coach Glenn Caruso in 2008, St. Thomas has only suffered seven total losses in those five years. To the dismay St. John's fans everywhere, Coach Caruso has now won the Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference three years straight, and has quickly turned an irrelevant football program into a perennial power. In fact, Caruso hasn't lost a conference game since losing to their bitter rival, St. John's, in 2009 (20-17). Taking this one step further, UST has now beat the Johnnies in three straight seasons. This comes after losing to them 16 of the previous 17 years prior to 2010 (UST beat SJU in 1997, 31-27). Hiring a charismatic coach committed to winning, while pouring lots of resources into the athletic program (specifically football) has really placed St. Thomas among the elite in D3 football.





St. Thomas Center Curtis James

 On offense the Tommies are anchored by All-American center Curtis James. The 6'3" 304lb senior has been a nightmare for opposing interior defensemen. As seen below the Tommies have been rushing for over 246 yards/per game behind James. As well as giving up only 12 sacks on the year. That's .92 sacks/game, which is good enough for 24th best in the country (out of 239 D3 programs). Freshman Brenton Braddock leads St. Thomas with 1008 yards rushing this season and 16 rushing touchdowns. Apart from Braddock, quarterback Matt O'Connell posses as a serious rushing threat as well. The 6'0" 194lb sophomore is the team's second leading rushing, averaging over 61 yards/game (5.8/carry). The one blemish in this skilled offense has been St. Thomas' inability to protect the football. As a team they've turned the ball over 29 times this season. Only 15 teams in the country have turned it over more. However, that might be somewhat expected from young players at the skilled positions. Thirteen of those turnovers came from O'Connell interceptions, but he has thrown for 21 touchdown averaging over 204 yards/game. One of his favorite targets has been 2012 All-Region Tight End, Logan Marks. This 6'5" 244lb monster makes for a huge target for O'Connell. Marks has proven to be a valuable asset for the Tommies' offense, especially in the redzone. The senior has a team high six touchdowns on the year, along with 40 receptions (second on the team). UST's leading receiver is Dan Ferrazzo with 48 catches for 725 yards.



Junior Linebacker Tremayne Williams (32)

The main reason why St. Thomas managed to get this far is because of its defense. Including the playoffs, the Tommies have been holding teams to just 14.15 points/game. That's 11th best in the country (6th best among 2012 playoff teams). Eight of their 11 defensive starters made the all-conference team - seven of which were named to the first team. Leading the way defensively for UST has been linebacker Tremayne Williams from Appleton, WI. Oddly enough, Appleton is just up the road from Oshkosh along Lake Winnebago (which has little to do with this post, but rather a fun little nugget). The junior leads the Tommies with 49 total tackles (37 solo), and has been extremely effective filling up the team's season stat sheet: 9.5 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, two ints, five pass breakups, and three forced fumbles. Williams was named to the second all-region team this season, along with teammates Ayo Idowu and Chinni Oji. Idowu has15 tackles for loss and five sacks - both are team leading. St. Thomas has been very physical upfront and extremely quick to the ball. Its defense has forced 30 turnovers this year - tied for 21st in the nation in takeaways. What St. Thomas seemingly is best at is preventing opposing offenses from converting third downs (only 27.27 percent of the time). Only five teams in the country have a better success rate this season.

2012 Statistics (National Rank)

St. Thomas Rushing Offense: 246.5 ypg (22)

Oshkosh Rushing Defense: 92.1 ypg (19)

St. Thomas Passing Offense: 227.4 ypg (79)

Oshkosh Passing Defense: 201.5 ypg (110)

St. Thomas Total Offense: 473.9 ypg (17)

Oshkosh Total Defense: 293.5 ypg (30)

St. Thomas Rushing Defense: 80.5 ypg (10)

Oshkosh Rushing Offense: 256.8 ypg (16)

St. Thomas Passing Defense: 196.5 ypg (99)

Oshkosh Passing Offense: 237.9 ypg (65)

St. Thomas Total Defense: 277.3 ypg (16)

Oshkosh Total Offense: 494.6 ypg (11)

Compared to last season, the Tommies find themselves in a very familiar situation this season. Must like last year, an undefeated WIAC team stands in the way of an undefeated UST team to move onto the Stagg Bowl. Last year the Tommies lost at Whitewater in the semis, 20-0. This season, however, St. Thomas gets to host the semi-finals (against a different WIAC team) which gives them a huge advantage over last year. I'll be interested to see how UST's offense starts off the game. It's no secret the Tommies' strength is their running game, but I bet they realize that Oshkosh is well aware of that. Last week, Linfield threw the Titans a curveball when they came out running the ball...even though the 'Cats are well known for their aerial attack. This seemed to catch Oshkosh off guard in the first half, before adjustments were made. I'm curious if UST will apply the same concept and attempt a few play-action passes in their first drive - hoping the catch UWO's safeties cheating in to stop the run. This game might possibly come down to turnovers. If that's the case, Oshkosh is one of the best teams in the country at ball security (+18 turnover margin). While St. Thomas has been one of the worst (+1 turnover margin). If the Tommies make a habit of giving Oshkosh the ball with only half the field to work with Saturday, the Titans will be going to the Stagg Bowl.